2016 transportation where to go

Under the background of economic adjustment, and the "traditional economy" relatively high correlation of railways, shipping will continue to experience the pain of transition, while and "new economy" related to aviation and road logistics will probably have more growth opportunities.

Railway: the trend of decline in freight volume along with investment remains high

2015 year on year growth of railway freight volume continued the downward trend started in 2014. January to November 2015, the national railway completed 3.07 billion tons of cargo, up 12.3 percent continued to decline.

Railway freight trend of decline from the reflection of the Chinese economy is undergoing the painful process of restructuring, the economic downturn and restructuring of the coal, ore, crude oil and the production of steel and other commodities as a major cargo types of rail transport industry bear the brunt of the impact.

In the long run, upgrade industrial structure makes value-added products to enhance and product weight and volume decline, slow the growth of total rail freight is a big trend. This is also why developing countries after a certain stage, the rail freight and even a reason backwards.

But overall, China's railway infrastructure is still in rapid growth stage. 2015 national railway investment in fixed assets 823.8 billion yuan, ranking the second in the history of railway investment.

"Thirteen Five" period, the railway fixed assets investment is expected to reach 3.5 to 3,800,000,000,000 yuan, and the "five-second" 358 million investment was flat, but these investments will be more focus on high-speed railway and passenger-related, mainline railway , intercity railway in three areas.


Shipping: the shipping is still hovering in the low longest period

The shipping industry is still running at the bottom of the cycle, can hardly be the turning point in the short term. Creating two factors round super cycle, the outbreak of large shipbuilding capacity shortages and growing demand, now from overcapacity and plummeting demand in opposite directions so that the current round of the trough may become a long valley in the history of modern shipping period.

In the dry bulk market, BDI in 2015, the traditional peak season demand in December fell to 471 points, a record since the index was founded 30 years low. Shipping tragic trend makes even the staunchest bulls also raised the white flag, in groupage market, the initiator of the ship's movement Maersk has a 18,000 TEU vessels into idle Triple E, and said there will be more ship to join "unemployment" team.

Tanker segment is the only bright spot in 2015 shipping market, freight rates climbing higher and higher, but in 2016 the trend of how the oil transport market, whether demand is heavily dependent on China's strategic reserves can continue.

Freight slump, cash flow dried up so that the owner of the business difficult. In the sea and COSCO has merged into the China Ocean Shipping, China Merchants and Sinotrans integration also engaged in full speed.

Internationally, the acquisition of Hapag-Lloyd Cruises in South America, to fly to the acquisition of Neptune. After the expected growth in demand for shipping shattered recovery trend, the industry's bankruptcy and reorganization will be the subject of the future of the market, the industry was forced in this way from the supply side to adjust the allocation of resources, until industry supply balance again.

Road Logistics: courier, intelligence, logistics, cross-border electricity providers are three hot industry growth

Road logistics industry is also affected by the impact of the economic downturn, but the extent weaker than the railway. The decline in freight volume in 2015 were 1 to Oct. highway freight YoY growth of 6.1%, compared with 8.7% and 8.8% annual growth last year slowed down.

But road logistics and living expenses related to still make investors excited, express, logistics and cross-border electricity providers wisdom is three hot industry growth. Express industry over the past 10 years to maintain the size of the industry CAGR of 53% high growth rate, an important support for road logistics growth. In 2015 the State Council, "Opinions on Promoting the Development of the express industry," support mergers and acquisitions and public financing, the influx of capital from various quarters express delivery market.

Shentong successful backdoor listing, many courier companies listing plan is in full swing will be. Wisdom logistics, the concept of "Internet + logistics" has become a reality, through the Internet information highway logistics is the initial stage.

Under global trade liberalization and facilitation of logistics premise, due to the strong presence and promote the spread both within and outside the national top-level, cross-border electricity supplier showing rapid growth.


Aviation: Low oil prices continue to improve performance, outbound tourism as an industry Blue Ocean

Oil prices down, RMB appreciation expectations and visa liberalization and other policies to bring the demand side than-expected growth in 2015 led to the great bull market of aviation, airline significantly improved year on year performance. Meanwhile, aviation popularization trend further identified. 2014 new domestic aviation passengers over 40 per cent of new passengers for the first time took the opportunity, while international travelers for the first time in the proportion of outbound passengers accounted for about 6 percent.

Outlook 2016 aviation market, market growth is still full of hope. Running low prices will be high probability event, the supply side, the aviation sector in 2016 is expected to increase the supply of aviation overall capacity by about 10%, improve the supply and demand is expected to continue.

On the demand side, consumption upgrades aviation popularization under background of continued rapid growth in demand for air travel. The market is expected to travel abroad in 2020 is expected to reach the scale of about 2.9 million people, the size of the contribution of outbound air passengers reached 180 million people, accounting for more than 60% of the number of outbound scale. At the same time all the way along the strategic impact, large-scale "going out" will bring a lot of international business and tourist travel, Africa only potential source of aviation on more than three million a year.

In domestic passenger traffic diversion to some extent facing competition from high-speed rail background, the outbound outbreak of the civil aviation market will open up a new blue ocean.

Chinese outbound air passengers Scale Forecast