Moody's downgraded the global shipping industry outlook

Because the Chinese sovereign credit rating from stable into negative, the international rating agency Moody's, one of the giants provoked the anger of Chinese official media, Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily Overseas Edition even issued a document accusing Moody's "Playin."
Recently, Moody's and the prospects for the next 12-18 months, the global shipping industry within the rating outlook to "negative", this time to see Moody's is not is "playin '? !
Moody's Japan Branch (Moody's Japan K.K.) analyst recently said the outlook for the global shipping industry over the next 12-18 months, the rating outlook to "negative."
And senior analyst Mariko Semetko vice president of the company, said the negative outlook is due to future tariff levels are expected to remain depressed, while market supply is still abundant, the shipping company expects future earnings will deteriorate further. The profit (EBITDA) of these shipping companies Moody's rating in 2016 before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will fall 7% -10%, compared to the results of the company in March this year is expected to decline more in. Accordingly, Moody's lowered the shipping industry outlook from "stable" to "negative."
Moody's recently released report pointed out that despite recent massive withdrawals and shipbreaking activities are efforts to reduce the gap between supply and demand on the market, but the bulk shipping industry outlook will remain weak situation, in particular the tariffs will continue to slump. Moody's noted that, despite the recent BDI index 290 points compared to record lows in September this year there has been improvement, but BDI remained at a low level. Since the Chinese economic slowdown continue to weigh on demand for commodities, this year there are a large number of delivery of new vessels entering the market in 2016 Bulk market performance is expected to remain at 2015 levels.
Cargo in the field, Moody's report noted that the company recently Cargo since the end of 2015 continued to be continued pressure on freight rates in the doldrums, leading to profit is still low, it will not appear in the short term expectations of future tariff increases. Moody's said that although groupage freight atrophy due in part to fuel prices, but the same set of transport market oversupply, which is due to a number of companies in the pursuit of economies of scale has ordered a larger container ship caused. In the case of the current container shipping market supply and demand imbalance, Moody's said that over the next 12-18 months, this situation will persist. The agency is expected in 2016 will exceed supply capacity increase of more than 2 percent growth in demand, which will lead to tariffs continue to slump. If fuel prices increase sharply, then Cargo profitability may be subject to further pressure.
In the field of oil transportation, Moody's said, because a large amount of new ships delivered in 2016 - Marine supply during 2017 will grow significantly. This will make the price of oil transportation and oil tankers, the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell this year. Because oil prices are still low, and structural changes in the refinery site will continue to support the demand for oil is expected to remain above the medium-term moving average oil transportation tariffs.
Moody's report noted that if shipping supply growth exceeded demand growth at less than 2%, then the prospects for the global shipping industry will return to a steady state, which means that shipping companies before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and change in profit last year was maintained at 5% dro to 10% increase in the interval. If a substantial decline in capacity oversupply situation, shipping interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization 10% growth in profits, the global shipping industry outlook will keep the situation.