Internet prophet Kevin Kelly: the future of all business, is the data business

 Wonderful point of view

1, the next era is the era of oxygen. In the near future, the total amount of information we transmit over a wireless network will exceed the total amount of information transmitted over the wired network.

2, the future, the data will be more in each person's smart device transmission, will not return to the tower, switch or "cloud" inside. By 2020, more than 2/3 of the information transmission distance of no more than 1 km.

3, a lot of people say: I will not go to share with others my medical data, financial data, sex life. But this is just your point of view. People will share these data in the future, we are still in the early sharing time.

4, unmanned vehicles will become your new office in the future, you use the car to receive data than you are sitting in the office to receive more data.

5, bitcoat really bring subversion is a feeling of communication, and this exchange has produced the same value of money.

6, 20 years after the greatest product, has not yet been invented. Although Google is such a powerful and successful high-tech companies, but I just want to say, you do not start a little late, and now what has happened is nothing.


Speech text:

       "Destructive innovation" is Christensen professor of the famous "innovator's dilemma" book mentioned in the concept. He tells us how difficult innovation can be in an already successful subject. In the 1800s, when the world's most profitable companies were those that operated sailing, they had become global. Then the steam boat was invented, no sail, by the steam turbine. At the beginning of the steam boat, is a bad experience of transport - compared with the galleon is small and short, the manufacturing price is very expensive, reliability is also poor. At that time the big shipping companies did not put it in the eyes.

       However, despite all kinds of do not fly, but the steam boat has an advantage, that is, can counter-current forward, which changed the human only thousands of years can only "downstream" history. With the development of technology, steamships become more and more cheap, more and more high reliability, the volume has become increasingly large. Finally, the craft of the steamer was mature, not only to destroy the galleons, but also to eliminate those who rely on shipping galleon shipping companies.

       Disruptive innovation was originally a joke

       To sum up: destructive innovation technology has a model: the beginning of the time are obscure things, be ignored. You can see the three lines: the above line is a very good performance in the market leader in the industry, there is a very smooth development curve; following a curve is the minimum consumer satisfaction, the bottom point, is the destruction Of innovative enterprises. Initially, the disruptive innovation of technology than the customer's request is poor, is a joke. However, when it develops at a faster rate, it suddenly becomes one of the rulers of the market when it suddenly meets the demand of consumers.

       For start-ups with disruptive technology, they have struggled with very low quality, high risk, low margins, minimal market size, and the lack of attention to the business model. Rational traders will not do it Kind of business. Why do only start-ups and small businesses do these innovations? Because they have no choice. A very, very frightening fact is that most start-ups are finished!

       In addition, no matter which industry you are doing, the real threat to your biggest opponent, is certainly not the industry's rivals, and those outside the industry you do not see competitors. Next, I would like to talk about the areas that I think may be subversive.

       From Copper Age to Oxygen Age

       I would like to say the first fact is: the world's fastest growing is not material, but information. It is faster than all of our biological production, human productivity. The amount of information in the world to what extent? Need to be multiplied by 276 to describe 16 times. The length of the cable created by humans per second has exceeded the speed of sound. These are called information explosion, the speed of information expansion and the speed of the atomic bomb is the same. And this is a lasting explosion, far from a flash.

       By 2050, the amount of data will reach a terrible one million Zetabit. A Zetabit is 1 trillion g. The next era is called the Zeta era, and in the Zeta era, the more massive information to describe what? English has been a poor word. I talked to a lot of linguists about the problem, and they did not have an answer. Faced with such a large amount of information, we do not even have a good mathematical algorithm to real-time data processing. How to use these data, the data into something of value? There is a lot of business opportunities.

       Different business times, the use of different media transmission of information. Early is copper, because people use cable to transmit; then into silicon era, silicon is made into chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen. In the near future, the total amount of information we transmit over a wireless network will exceed the total amount of information transmitted over a wired network.

      Personal data is the big future

      There is also a trend in the future data: now a lot of data in the intercontinental, through the submarine cable to transmit, is the transmission between the geographical location. But in the future a lot of data will remain in the local processing, and even the amount of information processed per family unit may be greater than the total amount of data left in the local. On a further level, each of us generates a lot of data every day.

      In the broadcast age, the number of viewers is a large magnitude, from the radio to reach; to the Internet age, the emergence of blog and social media, you become a radio station, you can have a lot of audiences, but you pass the amount of information Less than the radio station; later appeared WeChat circle of friends, passed to a relatively small audience, but the total amount of information is very large. I think the future, that is, each person to pass their own information era.

      Amazon is a big site, there is a node to control a lot of viewers, we call it "cloud"; low level is some of the local sending stations, we call "fog"; and the bottom of the grid, Is each of us as a receiver. I predict that the next data will be more in each person's smart device transmission, will not return to the tower, switch or "cloud" inside.

       We formed a small local area network. By 2020, more than 2/3 of the information transmission distance of no more than 1 km. So, like WiFi, Bluetooth technology, although not the current level of telecommunications technology, not very serious, low profit, the market is small, many problems, but not likely to subvert the future?

        The ability to intervene in networks is more important than ownership

       Another disruptive technology is cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information is 500 square level; the other 500 groups of information is 500 square level. If these two groups are networked, they can produce data of the order of magnitude of 1000, which is much larger than the square of two 500's. The traditional expansion of the network is very simple, that is, these small networks together, into a larger network. The increase in network size is geometrically multiples. So, there is a big cloud, than you put it into a lot of small network value more.

       From this Internet point of view, the more the number, the cost you provide each customer to zero close to infinite, you can basically provide a free service. With the development of cloud technology, the ability to intervene in the network than the actual ownership is more important. Because property rights are the foundation of capitalism, now we are in the subversion of ownership, capitalism is a very important thing.

       All business is data business

       No matter what you do the industry, you do business is data business. Your data about the customer, in fact, with your customers for you is just as important. Data can be streamed from one network to another. Data should not be defined by its storage, it should be defined by its flow.

       In the old days of data, we used files, folders, and desktops. Into the Internet age, the data appears on the page, the link. Today, we use the cloud, with tags, flow to metaphor data. For now, the folder, what the page is not the most important data. Everything is in our data stream, there is information, there is news.

       Past keywords are me, now the key word is us; past keywords is the project, the key word is data. We are in the whole new era of the Internet the first day, at this moment the most important. Then we need to know how to quantify their own, I have been involved in such projects, some of our own information to data.

       We use a lot of equipment to self-quantify. I know some people will be installed in the body more than 40 sensors, constantly testing their own data. I once bet with a person that any human tool can measure the data, must be measured. Why should we track this data? There are reasons for health, social reasons, improve work efficiency reasons.

      There are a lot of very advanced data measurement tools, for example, there is a tool to analyze our breathing gas inside the compound, by analyzing the breath to determine your blood situation. Apple introduced the watch, but also keep collecting your data, through the APP for processing. Through data analysis, we can see the highest efficiency of the day, in the day we eat, what has been done to improve efficiency. We can in this way, a better understanding of their own, improve production efficiency.

       Now just share the early times

       Now discuss a hot topic, is the ubiquitous camera monitoring. However, the Internet always want to monitor and collect data, we are very difficult to stop this trend. Each of our phones has a camera, which means that the world a total of 60 million cameras. The rise of social media, so we always kept in the report of our position.

      Spielberg and I did a film called "Minority Report", the actor wanted to escape from the environment has been tracked, but he found that he went to a place, the screen ads have become targeted His ads. We now talk about Pornographic, NSA prism, and we all know that their data has been collected insecurely. We can not stop the collection of these data, we should think about is how to how to collect data model, from an organization to control, into between you and me to observe each other. For example, the US police with a sensor camera for real-time monitoring of the public, then, in turn, the public can take this thing to monitor the police what we have done.

       Personality and transparency are positively correlated. If you completely hide yourself, do not share any data with others, your personalization is also zero. If you want to be a personal person, you must show your own data to the outside, to convey your message out.

       We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge era, many people said: I will not go to share with others my medical data, financial data, will not go to share with others my sex life. But these are just your current views. I think people are going to share that data in the future, and we're still in the early days of sharing.

       Augmented Reality, New Interactive Interface and Visual Tracking

       We all know that Google glasses, and now you can wear smart hidden glasses, can be directly attached to your cornea. A wearable device is not just eyeglasses; it can become a garment. We use it to receive data, but also in the transmission of data, through a variety of friction with it. We also gave the blind people a wearable vest, with a camera, can see the front, through the vibration to tell the blind how to go.

       These are augmented reality, I learned in college is the professional. Augmented Reality Combining virtual objects with the real world you see in some way is cool.

       The new interface, which I've demonstrated in the Minority Report. Tom Cruise in the operation of a computer, not like us to knock the keyboard, but all used up with a machine to interact. Every part of our body should be able to operate a computer. If I want to do a science fiction movie, I will not let the movie protagonist to use the keyboard to operate the computer, I will let him do some gestures, looks is at work.

       There are also visual tracking. It will keep track of wher your eyes are looking and know what you're looking at. Through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, the use of these technologies to track his eyeballs, to see what he was watching when the mood changes, according to change our content. The result is that when we look at the screen, in fact it is also looking at us. We can go according to this feedback to modify our works.

        Voice technology is much more than Apple's SIRI technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the picture is shot in Spanish, it becomes English. This is a final one of our interpersonal interaction of a vision, that is, in addition to the front said, he is a helmet, you take it in the head it will capture your thoughts, you can use your idea to manipulate the computer.

       wher the attention is, wher the money is

       Attention economy is a subversive field, wher attention, wher the money is. Many people read mail every day, spend a lot of time on the mail, it takes up our time. So some people say, you read the mail should be able to get the money, because you spend time. If you want to read the mail to give money, then read advertising is not to give money?

       Now the advertising model is spending money to advertising companies, why not go directly to spend money on your users, so he can get the money to see advertising it? So that we can see wher the attention of this person, and then use the money to buy his attention, let him see our ads. This person will affect other people, influential people should give more money.

       A new business model is that we should have the right to let ourselves become the media, advertising on their own to make money. For example, some of the following blog will put an ad, looks very cool, not like an ad, and bloggers can get the money. In addition, people should have the ability to go through their own advertising to make money. Directly involved in the production of advertising, direct advertising, and then through their own social media into a social advertising. This completely subvert the advertising industry.

      Long - distance image and video technology

      Long-range images are also a disruptive area, such as teleconferencing, telemedicine. Oculus is Facebook has just acquired a virtual reality company, I tried their products, I feel particularly good, is a full immersion experience, very real. Facebook spent $ 1 billion to buy the company.

       In addition to a variety of screens, including folding screen. The future of the screen, not just a hard one, we can even become the same screen with the book, you can turn, you can fold, which the contents of the variable. There are also some screen display, such as holograms. Holography is not perfect now, but it may be subversive to us. We are now not reading, but reading the screen. Screen there are a variety of logic.

       3D printing to bring us a huge subversion is that you previously thought that the hardware of those things in the future will become a software. 3D print out is actually a drawing, is able to change the transmission, modification, data formation. Then this is a we are talking about this a variety of Internet devices, it is also inside the chip, the Americans have an expectation, the use of 3D printing technology to return to the United States manufacturing, but there is also a saying, China is now the leader in 3D printing.

       Artificial intelligence is buyable wisdom

       Apple SIRI is artificial intelligence, you can talk to it. But most artificial intelligence we see is not that cool, and it's all running in the background. It can handle X-rays, deal with legal evidence, flight problems and more. Now the progress of graphics processing chip to enhance the machine learning ability, there are some machines can understand your photos, tell you what these photos are about, but also with your interpersonal interactive dialogue, is still in the laboratory stage.

       Artificial intelligence is a service you can pay for. Through artificial intelligence to start a business, the need to apply artificial intelligence to a particular area to increase the wisdom. Such as unmanned vehicles, in fact, the wisdom of artificial intelligence into the car. Its appearance will affect the traffic state, the impact of the industry such as courier and driver industry people. The real revolution is that these cars will become your new office in the future, the future you use the car to receive data than you are sitting in the office to receive more data.

      Electronic money is a kind of exchange money is very important, but money is now an exchange. All areas of the same nature of communication, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcasting, exposition or identification, are communicative in nature. There is an encrypted currency called Bitcoin, which means that this communication is encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, but not invisible currency. Electronic currency transactions are related to communication, can be tracked, in fact, is an exchange. So bitcoins really bring about subversion is a feeling of communication, and this exchange has produced the same value of money.

      Equity revolution

      The United States now has 450 public platforms, producing some very successful projects, which now turn into a big business and a lot of money is pouring into this area. Many people use this public site is not to raise money, but with this thing to do market research, to see their business plan will not be popular. Recently the public ownership was recognized, this is a very big revolution.

      If we go through to the 1980s and tell the people, then you will have Wikipedia in 30 years, there will be a variety of cool technology today, no one would believe. Looking forward to the next 20 years, but also today we can not imagine.

      The only thing I know is that 20 years after the greatest product, has not yet been invented, and you as entrepreneurs, we must go to the invention of these things! Although Google is such a high-tech companies so powerful and successful, but I just want to say, you are now beginning is not too late, and now what has happened is simply not what.